Can a Butterfly in Brazil Really Cause a Tornado in Texas?

Can a single wrong turn change the course of history? In 1914, it did — and it cost the world millions of lives.

It Began With a Love Story

Sophie Chotek, Duchess of Hohenberg, captured the heart of Archduke Franz Ferdinand of Austria, the heir to the Austro-Hungarian empire, and was later married to him. Though not exactly a commoner, Sophie came from a family of lesser known Czech nobles and not from a reigning or formerly reigning dynasty in Europe. As a result, their children were declared ineligible for the throne. Further, she was not allowed to accompany her husband to official ceremonies. However, an exception to this rule allowed Sophie to join Franz Ferdinand during his military duties.

In June 1914, Archduke decided to attend a series of military exercises in Bosnia-Herzegovina. Austria-Hungary had just annexed these provinces a few years earlier against the wishes of Serbia, which likewise wanted them. Upon learning of Archduke Franz Ferdinand’s visit, a secret revolutionary group, the Young Bosnians, composed of peasant students, began plotting his assassination.

A Wrong Turn in Sarajevo

As the royal couple traversed Sarajevo in an open-topped car, they were unaware of several would-be assassins lying in wait along their preannounced route. Amidst cheering crowds along the wide avenue known as Appel Quay, one of the assailants, Nedjelko Cabrinovic, hurled a grenade at their car shortly after 10 AM. However, the bomb missed its mark, bouncing off the back of the vehicle and detonating behind them. The explosion injured members of the entourage in the following car and sprayed bystanders with shrapnel.

After completing the planned reception at City Hall, the shaken royal couple decided to change their schedule and visit the hospital to check on an officer injured in the morning’s attack. However, confusion among the drivers led the motorcade down the wrong avenue, where the conspirators still lurked. When the motorcade stopped to turn around on a side street, 19-year-old Gavrilo Princip, an associate of Cabrinovic, seized his chance. Approaching the open car, he fired shots at Franz Ferdinand and Sophie with a Browning pistol. The driver quickly sped off for medical assistance, but Sophie succumbed to her injuries en route, followed shortly by Franz Ferdinand.

After the assassination, Gavrilo Princip attempted to take his own life but was subdued by bystanders before he could do so. Subsequently, all of the conspirators involved in the plot were apprehended and arrested. Due to his young age, Princip was spared the death penalty and instead sentenced to 20 years in prison. However, his time behind bars was cut short by illness, as he succumbed to tuberculosis in 1918.

The Domino Effect of War

One month later, on July 28, Austria-Hungary declared war on Serbia, the country seemingly behind the murders.

Germany then as Austria’s ally declared war on Russia. Germany then declares war on France. In turn, Great Britain declares war on Germany. Austria-Hungary then declares war on Russia, Serbia declares war on Germany. France and Great Britain declare war on Austria-Hungary.

And World War 1 has begun.

It’s crucial to emphasize that aside from Austria-Hungary’s declaration of war on Serbia, the subsequent declarations of war were not choices. Rather, they were mandated by security treaties obligating nations to come to the defense of their allies in the event of aggression.

The Road to Hitler

After World War I, the collapse of the German economy gave rise to Adolf Hitler’s ascent to power.

With the German economy in shambles and the population disillusioned by the post-war conditions, Hitler’s promises of economic recovery and national resurgence resonated strongly. Exploiting widespread discontent and capitalizing on nationalist sentiments, Hitler ascended to power.

And the rest as they say, is history.

The Butterfly Effect

The assassination of Archduke Franz Ferdinand stands as a pivotal moment in history, a catalyst for the disastrous events that followed. Yet, buried within this tale of political intrigue and tragedy lies a deeper understanding of the interconnectedness of events – a concept known as the butterfly effect.

The concept of the butterfly effect has long been debated, but its identification as a distinct effect is credited to Edward Norton Lorenz (1917–2008). Lorenz was a meteorologist and mathematician who successfully combined the two disciplines to create chaos theory.

While running computer simulations of weather patterns in the 1960s, Edward Norton Lorenz made a critical discovery. In one simulation, he entered the initial condition as 0.506, instead of 0.506127. The result was surprising as it was vastly different from its initial outcome. This observation led Lorenz to realize that even tiny variations in initial conditions could drastically change the outcome of the weather forecast.

It was from this insight that the concept of the butterfly effect emerged. He famously remarked that the flap of a butterfly’s wings could influence the weather elsewhere.

The butterfly effect is the concept that small things can have non-linear impacts on a complex system. It’s often illustrated by imagining a butterfly flapping its wings and causing a typhoon on the other side of the world.

Of course, a single act like the butterfly flapping its wings cannot cause a typhoon. Small events can, however, serve as catalysts that act on starting conditions.

Before Lorenz’s work, there was a prevailing belief that approximate initial conditions would yield approximate predictions. Lorenz’s research shattered that assumption, revealing that even the smallest deviations in starting conditions could render predictions useless. This was revolutionary, challenging the notion that early computer technology would grant us mastery over complex systems like the weather.

Thus, the Butterfly Effect exposed critical flaws in existing models of prediction and control.

Examples in History

Many examples exist of instances where a tiny event led to a dramatic change.

An example would be Adolf Hitler himself. In the early 1900s, a young Hitler applied for The Academy of Fine Arts in Vienna, only to be turned away, reportedly by a Jewish professor. This seemingly insignificant event had profound consequences, contributing to Hitler’s transformation from an aspiring artist to one of the most infamous figures in human history.

Had Hitler been accepted into art school, the trajectory of his life may have been drastically different. It’s impossible to know for certain how history would have unfolded had Hitler pursued a different path. However, it’s reasonable to speculate that countless lives could have been spared, and the world as we know it today might be fundamentally different, had the circumstances been altered.

This example serves as a stark reminder of the profound impact that seemingly insignificant events can have on the course of history.

What the Butterfly Effect Is Not

In popular culture, the term “butterfly effect” is almost always misused. It has become synonymous with “leverage”—the idea of a small thing that has a big impact, with the implication that it can be manipulated to a desired end.

This misrepresents Lorenz’s insight.

In reality, small events in a complex system may have no effect or a massive one, and it’s virtually impossible to predict which will occur. The Butterfly Effect isn’t about control, it’s about chaos and unpredictability.

Benjamin Franklin offered a poetic perspective on the idea long before chaos theory had a name:

For want of a nail, the shoe was lost;
For want of the shoe, the horse was lost;
For want of the horse, the rider was lost;
For want of the rider, the battle was lost;
For want of the battle, the kingdom was lost;
And all for the want of a horseshoe nail.

Benjamin Franklin